How do bias and variance of an estimator differ, and why does the tradeoff matter for metrics?
Simple meaning
Bias is systematic error of the expected estimate versus the truth
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Bias is systematic error of the expected estimate versus the truth
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MLE chooses parameters that maximize the probability of the observed data under a specified model.
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Heteroskedasticity means residual variance changes with the level of a predictor or group, violating the constant-variance assumption.
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Robust statistics remain stable when a fraction of points are contaminated, such as the median, MAD, or Huber estimators.
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The joint distribution describes two or more variables together.
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The base-rate fallacy ignores prior prevalence when translating a sensitive test into a posterior.
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Probability treats parameters as given and describes data
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A Bernoulli trial is one success-or-failure draw
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Use rank-based tests when the mean is not the estimand you care about, tails are heavy, or normality of the sampling distribution is doubtful in small samples.
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Bonferroni splits alpha across m tests by using alpha/m for each, controlling the family-wise error rate under weak assumptions.
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FDR is the expected share of rejected nulls that are false discoveries.
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Paired tests use within-unit differences, such as before/after on the same user or matched markets, which removes stable unit-level noise and often raises power.
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Prefer them when the estimand is a median or quantile, the metric is skewed with small n, or you distrust the analytic variance.
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Classical p-values assume the sample size or stopping rule was fixed in advance.
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They let you look at results continuously while still controlling Type I error, using martingale or mixture sequential probability ratio ideas.
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A p-value conditions on the null and does not use a prior over effect sizes.
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For a continuous test with a correctly specified null, p-values are uniform on 0 to 1.
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CUPED is a variance-reduction technique that adjusts the outcome using a pre-experiment covariate, often the same metric before launch.
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SRM is a statistically large deviation from the planned traffic split, detected with a goodness-of-fit test on assignment counts.
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When treatment spills over, such as marketplace pricing, shared inventory, or social feed effects, user-level randomization is contaminated.
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