When is a Poisson distribution a reasonable model?
Simple meaning
Poisson models counts of events in a fixed interval when events are rare, independent, and have a constant average rate.
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Poisson models counts of events in a fixed interval when events are rare, independent, and have a constant average rate.
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Binomial models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials with constant probability.
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Products of many positive random shocks, or processes with multiplicative growth, tend toward lognormal.
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Kurtosis describes tail heaviness and peak relative to a normal curve, with excess kurtosis often reported so normal equals zero.
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A stationary series has a stable mean, variance, and autocovariance structure over time.
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Lag features are past values of the series or of covariates, such as yesterday's demand or last week's price.
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A rolling mean averages the last k points to smooth noise and reveal slower structure.
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Random splits leak future information into training and overstate accuracy.
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Retention is the share of a starting cohort that is still active after a stated window, such as day-7 return.
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DAU and MAU count unique active users in a day or calendar month under a defined activity event.
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A DataFrame is a labeled table with rows and columns, like Excel in code.
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I first ask why data is missing.
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Histograms show distribution of a numeric variable in bins.
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It shows median, quartiles, and outliers quickly.
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Correlation is association
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Running many tests until one looks significant.
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GROUP BY email or phone HAVING COUNT(*) > 1, then investigate.
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Comparing magnitudes across categories.
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Drop when rare and random
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